诺奖得主:区块链与实体经济结合可提高社会生产效率

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嘉宾简介

拉尔斯•彼得•汉森(Lars Peter Hansen),芝加哥大学教授,国际著名经济学家(宏观经济学和动态经济学)。他因为对“资产定价理论的杰出贡献”而被授予2013年度诺贝尔经济学奖。

汉森教授的著作研究了经济决策者在不确定性下的行为及其动态模型,并且对资产定价之谜给出了合理解释(根据传统的资产定价理论,现实经济中的数据与资产定价模型之间存在较大冲突)。在最近的研究中,他开发了新的工具来对跨期风险回报权衡进行定量分析,并且对决策者对未来经济事件不确定时的经济行为进行了模型分析。

汉森教授因其“对经济行为人如何处理风险和决策方面的突出贡献”赢得了2010年BBVA的经济学奖。汉森教授同时是美国国家科学院和美国金融学会的会员,且是世界计量经济学会前任主席。

核心要点

分布式支付系统自带安全性与反欺诈特性,加密货币基于此系统建立的技术信用可以取代传统免费注册即送体验金通过层层授权建立的制度信用。当然,这只是一种技术方案。如果加密货币想成为真正的货币,它的币值必须更加稳定。作为一种新技术,区块链还需要时间去解决实际应用中的问题。

对于某类人而言,加密货币是最好的投资机会,因为价格高波动性本身具有很大的投机空间。我很久以前就提醒投资者注意加密货币的风险。但很多投资人在比特币上赚了大钱,从这个角度来看,他们不应该听我的。

委内瑞拉法币贬值非常厉害,“石油币”并非对冲风险的好办法。如果一个国家不能稳定自己的主权货币,那么它也不能保证可以稳定自己发行的加密货币。链下可以滥发法币,链上一样可以滥发加密货币。

01

比特币毁誉参半 加密货币投机空间大

金融界:您如何看待区块链与加密货币?

拉尔斯•皮特•汉森:作为一种创新技术,区块链可以通过与实体经济结合提高社会生产效率。从这个层面来看,我对区块链未来的发展比较乐观。

至于加密货币,即便是当前最成功的比特币,受到的评价也是毁誉参半。一方面,比特币是区块链迄今为止最成功的应用产品;另一方面,比特币的货币属性并不尽如人意。但区块链概念带来的价格暴涨与市值陡增让很多“不那么成功”的加密货币也获得了极大的关注,大量资本涌入这个领域。对于某类人而言,加密货币是最好的投资机会,因为价格高波动性本身具有很大的投机空间。

关于加密货币的暴富神话在网络上肆意倾泻,这种金钱诱惑往往让人难以拒绝。但我依然认为,当前区块链的应用场景尚不明朗,即便是支付场景也有很大的不确定性,加密货币价格的大幅波动也是“支付场景不确定”的一个侧面。比特币是当前最成功的加密货币,获得了“币圈”人士“信仰”般的狂热追捧。但成功如比特币,也没有找到属于自己的恰当位置,其可用于交易、支付的场景与方案都未能确定。当前加密货币更多用于黑色与非法交易,“灰色”属性就如烙印一般,一直伴随着比特币这类加密货币的成长壮大。

Views on Blockchain tech and Cryptocurrency

jrj.com: what's your overall view on blockchain technology and cryptocurrency?

Lars Peter Hansen:Blockchain tech innovative component may be used in the society to increase productivity, from aspects of technology, I think that would be of social use and actually quite productive. So I have some optimism in the blockchain technology. As for the cryptocurrency, apparently the most prominent cryptocurrency by now is bitcoin and it get criticism in all directions together with some highlights as well.

And less successful cryptocurrency getting more and more attentions as the market capitalization of cryptocurrency expand dramatically. More and more successful cryptocurrencies are getting attention and capital. For some people cryptocurrency work as the best investment opportunities, but it also comes with great volatility, and having big speculative in its nature.

It's hard not to notice all the news and fuss around this topic and some people do get really excited about the possibilities in investing in it. But again, I believe all we need in the future use of a blockchain technology is still unclear for the moment, we could say it's payment industry but as I said, the biggest existed cryptocurrency doesn't fit the role just yet, the increasing power needed for its transaction confirming has no solution yet. Now cryptocurrency are successful because of illegal transactions.

02

加密货币自带技术信用 但未来发展尚待观察

金融界:加密货币本身具有价值吗?对于普通投资者,您有什么建议吗?

拉尔斯•皮特•汉森:加密货币当然具有一定的价值。分布式支付系统自带安全性与反欺诈特性,这就是它最大的价值。区块链建立的技术信用可以取代传统免费注册即送体验金通过层层授权建立的制度信用。当然,这只是一种技术方案,未来具体会如何发展还需要继续观察。

作为区块链技术最成功的应用,加密货币充分发挥了分布记账的优点,能在未知的环境中创造信任和确定性。有乐观观点指出,基于区块链技术的世界通用货币有望推出,对此我不敢苟同。如果加密货币想成为真正的货币,它的币值必须更加稳定。作为一种新技术,区块链需要时间去解决实际应用中的问题,分布式支付系统的安全性与反欺诈性也需要时间来发展验证。

至于投资建议,我很久以前就提醒投资者注意加密货币的风险。当然,很多投资人在比特币上赚了大钱。从这个角度来看,他们不应该听我的。

Cryptocurrency's Value Discussion

jrj.com: are Cryptocurrencies themselves of any value by nature? Do you have any advice for ordinary investors?

Lars Peter Hansen:Cryptocurrency certainly have some type of value in it, most of the "value" lies in its important concept that decentralized payment system has more security and anti-fraud feature.

I caution against investing in cryptocurrency quite a long time ago, however, many investors have made huge amount of money of the bitcoins, in this perspective they should not take my investment advice.

In terms of currency, in order to be successful, it will need more stable value through time. With that said it's quite possible that some cryptocurrency solution for worldwide currency is on the progress. Blockchain technology is very innovative but it also need some time to fit the need of decentralized payment system to be more secure and anti-fraud.

03

链下可以滥发法币 链上一样可以滥发加密货币

金融界:委内瑞拉推出“石油币”作为自己的主权加密货币,您对此有何看法?

拉尔斯•皮特•汉森:观察各个国家对加密货币的不同态度,尤其是主权货币稳定与主权货币不稳定的国家之间的差异,是一件很有意思的事情。

“石油币”是委内瑞拉政府于2018年2月发行的一种加密货币。委内瑞拉法币贬值非常厉害,“石油币”是对冲风险的好办法吗?答案是否定的。如果一个国家不能稳定自己的主权货币,那么它也不能保证可以稳定自己发行的加密货币。链下可以滥发法币,链上一样可以滥发加密货币。另外,没有任何迹象表明,加密货币已经足以颠覆现有的主权货币体系。允许加密货币交易的国家往往具备一个比加密货币稳定得多的法币体系。对于拥有稳定法币体系的国家而言,即便新技术可能带来新利益,它们也没有必要以身犯险。

Opinions on “sovereignty” made cryptocurrency

jrj.com: Venezuela launched "petro" in February 2018, as its own sovereignty cryptocurrency, what's your take on this?

Lars Peter Hansen:It's funny to see how the different country responds differently to crypto currency, especially when country has a great stable monetary policy and countries that don't have it.

The "petro" is launched in February 2018. It is a cryptocurrency developed by the government of Venezuela. Is this a good way for countries that didn't have a stable monetary policy to hedge the risk. However, it is not an solution for any country wanted to fix its own monetary by replacing it with government issued cryptocurrency. Because so far no cryptocurrency has display any trait that is enough for any ground breaking replacement, and nearly all countries that allowed cryptocurrency to be traded have a much more stable currency system of their own.

Also, for any country that has a stable monetary policy, it's not necessary to test any of these technology even though they may have the benefit.

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